Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.635758 13.643288 15.844465 18.430491 21.378503 24.627340 28.471361
2025-01-05 8.461126 11.034247 14.116912 18.055191 22.923065 28.710907 36.078341
2025-01-12 6.664074 9.496473 13.146281 18.134658 24.706425 32.992134 44.140324
2025-01-19 5.403269 8.321431 12.326568 18.123852 26.179132 36.836891 51.835531
2025-01-26 4.780244 7.865994 12.332792 19.114298 28.957625 42.498962 62.252612
2025-02-02 4.236955 7.410608 12.233483 19.877206 31.411461 47.832795 72.549350
2025-02-09 3.824035 7.074288 12.237354 20.743322 34.030574 53.528827 83.691137
2025-02-16 3.301809 6.465481 11.719866 20.715879 35.255021 57.228786 92.132283
2025-02-23 2.764149 5.735598 10.897936 20.082894 35.435510 59.319148 98.245954
2025-03-02 2.296746 5.049889 10.051055 19.290888 35.247576 60.770266 103.403361
2025-03-09 2.020960 4.679811 9.704582 19.300250 36.348569 64.278880 111.926765
2025-03-16 1.795262 4.370511 9.425329 19.386301 37.562830 68.016056 120.994427
2025-03-23 1.585391 4.065571 9.127775 19.428349 38.740048 71.832233 130.538871
2025-03-30 1.331281 3.617270 8.488657 18.754275 38.572583 73.365180 136.392339
2025-04-06 1.176201 3.366127 8.215168 18.753771 39.626170 77.046615 146.066829
2025-04-13 1.039012 3.131100 7.942118 18.718293 40.597555 80.625051 155.741068
2025-04-20 0.995798 3.124982 8.167764 19.729477 43.655104 88.107742 172.630918
2025-04-27 0.939098 3.072959 8.281896 20.511469 46.311893 94.999526 188.803388
2025-05-04 0.893330 3.042268 8.440488 21.400945 49.241288 102.545551 206.508010
2025-05-11 0.798125 2.853006 8.196299 21.372534 50.290298 106.615055 218.063444
2025-05-18 0.682455 2.577816 7.702092 20.721935 49.985698 108.074149 224.848420
2025-05-25 0.575267 2.302479 7.165304 19.907851 49.255426 108.643250 229.960479
2025-06-01 0.516846 2.170424 6.983676 19.917469 50.299492 112.741581 241.949363